Josh Harrison, Better in 2015

It was Saturday, May 3, 2014.  For the sixth consecutive May, it had been a rite of passage for me to venture home for the Pittsburgh Marathon.  The previous two marathons, in particular, offered a chance to hear the family, the town, and sports radio buzzing about the Pirates strong start to the season.  That certainly wasn't the air around PNC Park heading into the 2014 race.  The Buccos were well under .500 (11-19 upon arrival on May 3) and our 2013 Buctober was quickly seeming like a flash-in-the-pan bonanza than the standard moving forward for the next handful of years.

The season turned around that night.

Sure, the Buccos dramatic 8-6 victory gave them two come-from-behind victories against the Blue Jays.  And Mark Melancon notched his first save of the season, establishing himself as the new hammer in the bullpen.  But May 3 was all about Josh Harrison.

Harrison's night was the tipping point in the Pirates' season, igniting a stagnant offense in need of a consistent threat at the plate and on the base paths.  Harrison provided that, and then some, all the way to being selected to his first MLB All-Star game and being voted ninth in the National League MVP balloting.

So why do I bring up a game nine months ago?  It serves as the catalyst to the prediction that Harrison will be just as strong if not, better in 2015.  Granted, I might not be in the majority with this opinion.  Similarly to Zach Duke's or Oliver Perez' rookie year or Jose Castillo and Craig Wilson in the mid 2000s or, more recently, Alex Presley and Andrew Lambo in today's game, Harrison brings a potential, an excitement and an optimism that stability is accompanying his skills and the Pirates might just be set for the foreseeable future with an everyday third baseman and Swiss Army Knife.  We thought this for the aforementioned players only to be reminded how daunting it is to have consistent success at the Major League level. 

But many question just how lucky and/or under-established Harrison is.  After all, 12 months ago, no one, not even Josh and the Harrisons, expected #5 to be gracing the cover of magazines and serving as the mainstay to a second straight playoff dash.   And doubt looms around Bradenton and Pittsburgh about Harrison's durability.  Check out fangraphs.com's assertion: "Josh Harrison has little upside and a huge amount of downside going into 2015. I just don’t see myself hedging my bets on a player who at best may end being Omar Infante or Tony Graffanino. At worst, he could be back in the minors.  He had a great 2014 season, but I would not expect a repeat in 2015."

And take a look at what rantsports.com said about Harrison going into the year.  Two-thirds of the article seems to be founded on opinion, of which I don't agree or understand.  One part of the article reads, "The main reason to expect Harrison to decline is that he has never put up this strong of a season in his career.  Last season, Harrison put up a triple slash of .315/.347/.490, numbers only the best players in baseball put up.  But the highest triple slash that Harrison had before that was only .250/.290/.409." 

Going into that May 3 game against Toronto, Josh Harrison was hitting .208.  He started only two games in 2014, where he was 3 for 10 and had only 23 at-bats on the season leading to his leadoff start against Toronto.  Most Pirates fans would agree that Manager Clint Hurdle was wise in keeping Harrison in the starting lineup, pretty much a no-brainer maneuver that was rewarded with MVP-caliber production.  But what can we make of Harrison's 2014 season?

Harrison has been a major leaguer with the Pirates since 2011.  Here are some statistics that you might find interesting:
* In 2011, Harrison had 195 ABs with 53 hits.  He pinch-hit eight times, going 0-8.
* In 2012, Harrison had 249 ABs with 58 hits.  He pinch-hit 29 times, going 4-29.
* In 2013, Harrison had 88 ABs with 22 hits.  He pinch-hit 29 times, going 6-29.
* Going into the May 3 game against the Blue Jays, Josh Harrison had pinch hit 13 times and earned two hits.

Here, then, are Josh Harrison's pinch-hitting averages for his career:
2011: .000
2012: .138
2013:  .207
2014: .154 before May 3, 3-20 total for the year (.150)
Career: 13 for 86 (.181)

Let's eliminate his pinch-hitting numbers for these seasons and tab Harrison's Plate Appearances / At-Bats / Hits / Average / (Average for the season)

2011: 196 / 187 / 53 / .284 (.272)
2012:  247 / 220 / 54 / .245 (.233)
2013: 66 / 59 / 16 / .271 (.250)
2014: 530 / 500 / 161 / .322 (.315)
Career: 284 for 996 (.285)

Baseball Reference.com has Harrison's 162-game average at 139 hits in 469 at-bats.  That's a .298 batting average, including pinch-hits.  Assuming he continues at a .181 clip as a pinch-hitter, that would place his 162-game average without pinch hits at .304.

Obviously it's much more difficult to deliver pinch-hits when you've been sitting on the pine and the manager summons you to drive home the tying run against the team's best reliever.  But how many times have the Pirates (or any team) ridden a player too long, giving him opportunity after opportunity only to see that player wilt to a .230 average?

I am of the opinion that Harrison will have an even better 2015.  He's never had to prepare for being the table-setter for any lineup heading into spring training.  He never withered last year during the most grueling months and charging into October.  His batting averages by month in 2014, excluding pinch hits include:
May: .325 (26 for 80)
June: .317 (32 for 101)
July: .286 (24 for 84)
August: .356 (42 for 118)
September: .327 (34 for 104)

He's never had to focus on plate discipline because he had to be the spark to drive home runs or get on base or move positions three times in one game.  Look at what he said in Pittsburgh Magazine back in July: “It’s hard to try to keep up — and try to perfect — five positions,” says Harrison. “What I’ve found is that it’s easier for me to just go out there and be an athlete, as opposed to trying to doing it the textbook way. Because it’s never going to be textbook when you’re not there every day.” 

Think about how much damage Harrison can do when he's worked at third base for an entire off-season and spring training.  Think about how many baseball players are peaking in their late 20s.  Think about how Harrison is a bargain at $2.8 million for one year and how he's playing everyday like he has something to prove. Then think about how his numbers as a starter have been strong during his four years in the Black and Gold.  Is it really that unfathomable to believe Harrison will be a force at the top of the lineup in 2015?

Unfortunately, in three months when I return home for that first weekend in May to run the marathon, the Pirates will be on the road in St. Louis.  By May 3, they will have had 24 games in the books.  Regardless of their place in the standings or their individual performances over the first month, it will be enjoyable to reflect on this day one year earlier, the day the Pirates found their secret weapon.  When you look at the body of work, though, maybe it wasn't really a secret.